Lucent

The offer

The IPO opened on September 14, 2026, offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 each, a capital raise of about N2.15 trillion, or roughly $1.6 billion. Unlike Quickmart’s sale of existing shares, this one is aimed at raising money for the business. Proceeds are earmarked for a $14 billion plan to double crude processing from nearly 700,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million by 2029. The minimum subscription was just 10 shares, in what Dangote pitched as an “IPO for the people”, with a target of 10 million retail investors.

Demand

The 44-day offer ended with orders almost three times the $1.6 billion target. Reuters reported preliminary orders of around N6.4 trillion ($4.78 billion). Investors came from 119 or 120 countries depending on the source, including all 54 African nations, and the window was extended by two weeks to let more African investors take part.

That sets up an allocation squeeze. Dangote promised priority to applicants seeking shares worth N50,000 or less if demand exceeded supply. He has also floated the idea of selling part of his personal stake to people who don’t get enough shares. He currently controls about 87% of the refinery.

The valuation

At the offer price, the deal implies a post-money valuation of roughly N65 trillion, about $47 to $49 billion. A July private placement of $2.5 billion, reportedly 3.7 times oversubscribed, came before the public offer. I got that figure from a tracking site rather than a primary source, so treat it with some caution.

The pitch to investors

The company has said dividends will be paid in US dollars, backed by export earnings, which matters in a market where naira volatility worries foreign investors. The refinery has become a major exporter of refined products, including jet fuel into Europe. Dangote also tied the IPO to a broader industrialisation agenda, with the group announcing expansions in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Namibia and elsewhere.

The Kenya connection

For Kenyan readers there is a direct link. Nairobi Securities Exchange CEO Frank Mwiti met Dangote in Lagos in the run-up to the offer to discuss how African exchanges could support it. Dangote also launched construction of a 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery for the East African market in the days after the Nairobi visit. The Dangote Group will hold 70% and regional governments the rest, with Kenya and Rwanda allowed to spread payments for their stakes over four years.

What comes next

Trading on the Nigerian Exchange is expected to start in December 2026. The exchange expects a big jump in its retail investor base.

Things to weigh

Heavy oversubscription doesn’t guarantee a strong debut. Share prices can fall below the offer price, and many applicants will receive fewer shares than they asked for. The valuation depends on the expansion succeeding and on the dollar dividend pledge being honoured over time. Dangote’s majority holding also means minority investors will have limited influence.

This is information, not investment advice. Anyone considering buying should read the prospectus and speak to a licensed adviser.